A massive expiration of cryptocurrency options contracts is underway, as over $3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options mature on May 9th. This event is expected to spike trading volume and potentially increase volatility in the crypto markets.
Data from Deribit indicates that approximately $2.65 billion in BTC options and $364 million in ETH options are expiring. The put/call ratio for both assets is slightly above 1: 1.02–1.05 for BTC and 1.39–1.43 for ETH, signaling a marginally bearish sentiment, particularly for Ethereum. Max pain prices are $94,000 for BTC and $1,850 for ETH, meaning a large number of contracts would expire worthless if settled at these levels.
The clustering of put options and analysts’ comments suggest traders are leaning bearish, with more hedging for potential downside, especially ahead of a predicted volatile weekend. External global events, such as ongoing US-China trade talks, are also feeding market uncertainty and could further affect price trajectories. Some market commentators note that any dramatic news from these talks could either derail Bitcoin's recent price momentum or provide additional upward impetus.
Traders are advised to monitor developments closely and be cautious, as the unwinding of hedges into expiration may temporarily heighten price swings. Ultimately, this options expiry highlights the complexity of market forces, where derivatives, global macro events, and trader sentiment converge.