Tron's native token TRX has exhibited a strong correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), with the correlation coefficient surpassing 0.88 in May 2025. This close market linkage suggests that TRX's price movements are increasingly shadowing Bitcoin's trajectories, signaling possible significant market shifts ahead. TRX founder Justin Sun has highlighted this remarkable correlation as an indicator of evolving crypto market dynamics.
Analysts, including on-chain researcher Carmelo Alemán, project that if Bitcoin continues its bullish run, TRX could potentially multiply significantly in value, with speculation of a 4x price surge for 2025. This is driven by TRX's smaller market capitalization (~$26 billion) compared to Bitcoin's approximately $2.17 trillion market cap, offering TRX more explosive growth potential during Bitcoin bull cycles.
TRX's performance has outpaced Bitcoin over recent periods, including a 146.4% gain over the last year compared to Bitcoin’s 60%. The token’s price reached $0.2768, nearing its all-time high of $0.4313. Additional bullish fundamentals include rapid network growth and increased adoption in Asia, along with a historic shift where Tether (USDT) supply on the Tron network surpassed that on Ethereum, indicating rising utility.
Risk metrics also support TRX's strength; its 180-day Sharpe Ratio ranges between 0.1 and 0.15, exhibiting a robust risk-return profile. All TRX holders, from short-term traders to long-term investors, are currently in profit, a rare scenario that may foster further asset evangelism and attract new investors. Analysts continue to monitor these trends closely for potential market opportunities arising from TRX's reinforced linkage with BTC.