Analysts from Bitfinex have forecasted that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb as high as $125,000 by the end of June 2025, contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions. The key catalyst influencing Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory is the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report expected on Friday, which is anticipated to indicate a slowdown in employment growth. Forecasts estimate new non-farm payrolls to range between 125,000 and 130,000, a decline from April's 177,000.
Bitfinex analysts believe a weaker-than-expected jobs report would accelerate the Federal Reserve's timeline for interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin by boosting institutional demand and increasing ETF inflows. Maintaining Bitcoin price support above $105,000 could open the path to the $120,000–$125,000 range in June.
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected jobs report may delay rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. Investor sentiment remains mixed ahead of the report, with recent labor market data providing conflicting signals.
Separate analysis from Bitfinex also projects Bitcoin could reach $115,000 or higher by early July, fueled by institutional interest and continued ETF inflows. The analysts identified a $95,000–$97,000 price range as a key accumulation zone amid current market pullbacks. The shrinking liquid supply of Bitcoin—down by 30% over the past 18 months due to increased institutional holdings and ETF activity—is also cited as a factor setting the stage for potential price surges as demand intensifies.