The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to hold a key monetary policy meeting on June 16-17, 2025. Market watchers, including Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, see this meeting as a pivotal moment that could significantly impact global risk assets, notably Bitcoin (BTC).
Hayes predicts that if the BOJ delays its quantitative tightening (QT) plan and reintroduces selected quantitative easing (QE) measures, it could trigger a strong rally in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. QE involves central banks buying government bonds to inject money into the economy, lowering interest rates, and encouraging spending during challenging economic times.
This speculation is grounded in recent BOJ actions: On July 31, 2024, the BOJ announced a plan to reduce government bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter starting August 2024, signaling quantitative tightening. However, insiders told Bloomberg the BOJ is considering smaller reductions, potentially halving purchases to 200 billion yen per quarter starting April 2027.
The backdrop includes ongoing low inflation levels in Japan, keeping pressure on the yen and leading market participants to believe that the BOJ will maintain its ultra-loose monetary stance for some time. Bloomberg highlighted that the inflation target is still distant, and thus, rate hikes are unlikely soon.
Hayes’ view is that this dovish stance combined with any resumption or expansion of QE would encourage investors to take on more risk, possibly driving capital into Bitcoin for higher returns amid low-interest rates. This sentiment is reinforced by increased market activity in FX futures, crypto spot trading, and Japanese equities.
Other analysts point out that rising yields and perceived risks in Japan’s sovereign bond market have already prompted institutions to view Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign default risks. For example, Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $112,000 in May 2025, shortly after Japanese bond yields spiked.
However, Japan’s monetary policy also faces challenges, including inflationary pressures from a weakening yen, which raises import costs and affects citizens’ purchasing power. Overall, the cautious BOJ approach may continue through 2026, contrasting with other central banks raising rates aggressively.
In summary, the upcoming BOJ decision is highly anticipated as a macro trigger that could either reinforce the current monetary tightening or pivot back towards easing, with significant consequences for Bitcoin and global risk asset markets.