Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching critical price milestones, testing resistance levels near $112,000 and eyeing $115,400 as the next key threshold for a potential new price discovery phase. Despite recent price consolidation above $100,000 and bouts of profit-taking, short-term holders have been notably restrained, selling below historical norms. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that short-term holders are offloading around 21,000 BTC daily on centralized exchanges—lower than typical—indicating a calm market rather than panic.
Technical indicators show BTC trading above all major moving averages (50, 100, and 200 SMA), supported by firm price action from key local lows around $97,600. The Bollinger Bands on the 3-day chart indicate tightening volatility, which often precedes a significant price move. Should Bitcoin decisively break above $112,000, it may trigger an expansive rally that could propel prices into uncharted territory. Conversely, failure to surpass this resistance could result in a pullback to test support levels near $103,600.
Long-term holders have realized over $930 million in daily profits, which typically suggests late-stage bull market conditions. However, unlike previous cycles, this profit-taking has not triggered panic selling; instead, long-term holder supply continues to accumulate, reflecting a maturing market. Contributing to this stability are U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional custody, which appear to be anchoring supply in more conviction-driven hands.
On-chain metrics reveal a dense supply cluster near current spot prices, suggesting heightened sensitivity that could fuel sharp moves. Yet, options market implied volatility remains subdued, indicating low market expectations for near-term turbulence. This divergence historically precedes sharp price breakouts, suggesting that a significant move could be imminent. Investors and traders are closely monitoring these dynamics, aware that the coming days could define Bitcoin's trajectory for the remainder of 2025 and potentially influence the broader crypto market.