Coinbase Research has released reports highlighting a potential significant rally for Bitcoin in the latter half of 2025, driven by a combination of macroeconomic improvements and regulatory advancements in the United States.
Key drivers include: improved U.S. economic growth boosting investor confidence; anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts encouraging capital flow into higher-growth assets like Bitcoin; and progressive moves toward clearer U.S. crypto regulations, such as the pending GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, which aim to define oversight roles and enhance legal clarity for digital assets.
Economic growth generally correlates with higher risk appetite among investors, potentially making Bitcoin a favored digital store of value and inflation hedge as institutions increase corporate adoption of blockchain technologies and digital asset holdings. New rule changes allowing "mark-to-market" accounting help encourage public companies to add crypto to their balance sheets, though this introduces systemic risks if financed through convertible debt.
Meanwhile, altcoins are expected to face a more challenging landscape, requiring specific catalysts like successful protocol upgrades or ETF approvals to benefit similarly. The SEC is reviewing over 80 crypto ETF applications, some of which could reach decisions by mid to late 2025.
The Coinbase Research outlook is cautiously optimistic but warns of risks from unexpected economic downturns, delays in regulation, geopolitical disruptions, or market accidents like exchange failures. Overall, Bitcoin is positioned to capitalize on broad positive macro and regulatory trends, while altcoins may witness more mixed performance depending on individual developments.