On June 13, 2025, the crypto market faced a significant options expiration event with more than $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options set to expire, predominantly on Deribit. Bitcoin accounts for the majority, with approximately 27,959 option contracts expiring, representing nearly $2.9 billion in notional value. The maximum pain price level for Bitcoin options is around $106,500, slightly above the current trading price near $104,342. The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options stands at 0.91, indicating a leaning towards call (bullish) options among traders.
Ethereum’s options, numbering about 246,849 contracts with a notional value of $617.6 million, have a put-to-call ratio of 1.14, which suggests a prevalence of protective puts (bearish sentiment) amid the contracts set to expire. The maximum pain level for Ethereum is noted at $2,650, compared to a current trading price near $2,515.
The Max Pain theory points to underlying asset prices gravitating toward strike prices where option holders suffer the greatest losses, benefitting market makers. However, recent analysis shows mixed signals: while Bitcoin traders seem slightly bullish, Ethereum’s higher put-to-call ratio signals growing bearish protection. Additional market dynamics include geopolitical tensions, particularly escalations in the Middle East, and macroeconomic factors such as US-China trade developments and inflation data impacting volatility.
Complementing this, another report on June 13 indicated the crypto market was preparing for volatility ahead of these expiries with BTC and ETH prices dropping over 2% within a 24-hour period. Bitcoin’s put-call ratio hovered near 0.95, slightly bearish, with a max pain point at $107,000, signaling a potential price retracement. Ethereum’s put-call ratio at 1.18 and max pain at $2,700 suggested bearish sentiment, with profit booking observed after a previous bullish run.
Analysts advised caution given the geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting global markets, noting that while Bitcoin remains close to key support levels around $106,000, momentum is fragile. Ethereum faces similar pressure but with a possible short-term bullish rebound if it sustains above $2,700. Overall, traders are advised to anticipate increased volatility and strategic position adjustments as options expiry plays out amid external risks.