Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating just below its all-time high near $112,000 while holding above key support levels. Despite strong bullish momentum across the crypto market, BTC has had difficulty breaking the critical $110,000 resistance level, keeping traders cautious. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a recovery in Bitcoin's 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), which fell to 7% in April 2025 but has since rebounded to around 31%, entering what analysts describe as a "strong zone." This improvement in long-term fundamentals coincides with BTC's price rally back toward $110,000 during May-June 2025, renewing optimism for a sustained bullish trend.
Prominent analyst Axel Adler Jr. forecasts Bitcoin could surge to $168,000 by October 2025 if favorable conditions persist, including continued momentum in the futures market and increased leverage. However, near-term caution is advised due to signals of a "soft reversal point," such as declining open interest and positive funding rates, which may result in short-term consolidation or correction below $108,000. Fellow analyst Michaël van de Poppe also noted BTC's failure to surpass $110,000, suggesting a possible correction but emphasized that maintaining levels above $106,000 would sustain bullish sentiment.
BTC's price is currently trading at about $107,259, within a range bounded by support at $103,600 and resistance at $109,300. The coin remains above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $102,998, indicating an intact broader uptrend. Market volume is stable but slightly reduced recently, implying momentum is cooling off but still constructive.
Additional macroeconomic factors, including systemic stress in the U.S. economy stemming from elevated Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions, contribute to cautious market sentiment. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by improving holder dynamics. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley anticipates that if Bitcoin surpasses $130,000, investors may increasingly borrow against their holdings rather than sell. Retail sentiment has surged recently, with a reported two-to-one ratio of positive to negative BTC-related social media posts, the highest in months, although the Fear and Greed Index is currently in 'greed' territory, signaling potential overextension.
Institutional conviction appears robust as long-term holders continue increasing net positions while netting significant daily profits. Overall, Bitcoin appears poised for a pivotal move, with a decisive breakout above resistance potentially confirming a renewed uptrend and a push back into price discovery.