Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and a prominent macroeconomic analyst, has presented a detailed prediction that the current cryptocurrency bull cycle could extend well into the second quarter of 2026. His analysis draws strong parallels to the explosive 2017 crypto bull run but factors in crucial macroeconomic conditions that differentiate this cycle from previous ones.
Pal emphasizes a ‘spookily similar’ market behavior to 2017, yet notes that the current cycle’s timeline might be considerably longer due to a low proprietary business cycle score—an indicator assessing the global economy’s health. This score is below 50, indicating a slower economic expansion that typically stretches market cycles, including cryptocurrencies.
Another vital factor Pal highlights is the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which tends to have an inverse relationship with risk assets like cryptocurrencies. A weaker dollar often correlates with increased liquidity, looser monetary policies, and greater investor appetite for alternative assets perceived as stores of value or growth opportunities.
Pal’s extended timeline challenges traditional crypto cycle models that predominantly focus on Bitcoin halving events, which usually predict market peaks around 2024 or 2025. Instead, his framework integrates broader macroeconomic variables, suggesting that the crypto bull market's peak might arrive later than commonly expected.
His conviction extends beyond Bitcoin, naming Ethereum, Solana, and particularly SUI—where he holds over 70% of his portfolio—as key beneficiaries likely to perform strongly in the prolonged bullish environment. Pal underscores the importance of a long-term perspective, resilient risk management, and diversification given the inherent volatility of crypto markets.
While acknowledging the unpredictability of market movements, Pal’s analysis offers a compelling, macro-driven rationale for a sustained crypto market upswing, potentially yielding significant returns if these broader economic dynamics persist.