Bloomberg analysts have increased the probability of a U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval to 95%, significantly boosting optimism in the cryptocurrency market. This surge in confidence is attributed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) more collaborative approach with ETF issuers and a shifting regulatory stance that now classifies XRP, alongside altcoins like Solana and Litecoin, as commodities rather than securities. This reclassification simplifies the path for ETF approvals as commodities are less stringently regulated by the SEC.
Major financial institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares are strongly supporting XRP ETF applications, signaling robust institutional interest. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg highlight SEC’s active engagement and public comment requests on filings as very positive signs signaling impending approvals, potentially as soon as October 2025.
The institutional momentum driven by these firms could mirror the successful inflows experienced by Bitcoin ETFs, with projections suggesting that XRP could see market capitalization growth by approximately $1.6 trillion, potentially boosting the XRP token to around $30 each if ETF inflows reach even 35% of Bitcoin ETF levels.
Key approval deadlines include Grayscale’s submission by October 17, followed by other major filings from WisdomTree and CoinShares. Alongside XRP, ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, Cardano, and Dogecoin also have high probabilities (around 90-95%) of SEC approval, reflecting a broader trend toward regulatory acceptance of crypto assets as commodities.
This shift under new SEC leadership under Chairman Paul Atkins is expected to stabilize the crypto market, reduce volatility, and encourage broader adoption and innovation. Consequently, both retail and institutional investors may soon have regulated avenues to invest in these assets. XRP’s price is currently consolidating near $2.01, showing signs of potential breakout as technical indicators tighten.