BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin reaching $250,000 and Ethereum hitting $10,000 by the end of 2025, attributing this surge to U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policies. In a detailed blog post, Hayes described Trump's industrial strategy—focusing on rare earths and defense manufacturing—as a catalyst for massive credit expansion, creating a "wartime economy" that benefits risk assets like cryptocurrency.
Hayes explained a self-reinforcing "credit waltz": credit creation fuels crypto demand, stablecoin issuers invest user funds in U.S. Treasuries, and the government recycles capital into further credit. He also highlighted potential regulatory shifts, including crypto in 401(k) plans or eliminating capital gains taxes, which could deepen institutional involvement. While Bitcoin remains his primary focus, Hayes suggested Ethereum may outperform due to renewed institutional interest and declining attention toward faster chains like Solana.
Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance between $118,270-$119,530 despite trading at $118,200 (weekly +8.7%), with declining 24-hour volume (-10% to $49.2B) signaling weak momentum. Analysts like Glassnode's James Check caution that sustained movement above $150,000 is needed to validate Hayes' target. Ethereum trades at $3,688 (+1.2% daily) with strong on-chain signals—daily active addresses at 463,880 and fees up 475% since early July—and bullish technical patterns like a Cup & Handle formation targeting $13,000 long-term.