Bitwise CIO Declares Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Dead, Predicts 2026 Rally Driven by Institutional Adoption

today / 16:04

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan asserts that Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle—previously driven by halving events—is no longer relevant due to fundamental market shifts. Hougan predicts significant BTC gains in 2026, citing diminishing halving impact (each event cuts rewards by smaller absolute amounts), improving regulation like the GENIUS Act, and accelerating institutional adoption via ETFs and pension funds.

Hougan emphasized reduced "blow-up risk" from market shocks due to regulatory clarity but warned about overleveraged Bitcoin treasury firms. His view aligns with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted institutional adoption is "bigger than we thought," though analyst Rekt Capital contends the cycle could peak by October 2025 if mimicking 2020 patterns.

Bitcoin trades near $118,169, up 10% monthly. Tom Lee reinforced long-term optimism, branding BTC "Digital Gold" with a $1 million forecast, citing its potential to challenge gold's dominance amid favorable macro trends like potential Fed rate cuts.