Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $118,000 after a 4.24% dip from its all-time high of $123,091, with technical and on-chain indicators signaling potential volatility ahead. The exchange whale ratio—measuring top 10 inflows versus total exchange inflows—stands at 0.52, a level historically associated with short-term corrections. Its 30-day moving average has risen consistently since May, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Analysts highlight two critical scenarios: A sustained break above $118,000 amid declining whale ratios could propel BTC to $122,000–$124,000. Conversely, failure to reclaim $118,000 while the ratio remains above 0.5 risks a drop to the $111,000–$112,000 demand zone. Liquidation heatmaps identify clusters at $113,200 and $121,800, with the latter offering nearer liquidity for upward moves.
Technically, BTC consolidates within a $116,000–$120,000 range amid low volatility. A bearish RSI divergence suggests fading momentum, while a bullish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart anchors support near $114,000. On-chain data reveals heightened retail activity but no significant selling pressure from whales, indicating institutional confidence in the longer-term bull trend.