Bitcoin Faces $105K Dip Risk Amid August Bearishness, But Fed Catalyst and Institutional Buys Hint at Rally

05.08.2025 02:42

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $114,500 after recovering from weekend lows of $112,000, with analysts warning of a potential drop to $105,000 in August due to historical bearish trends. Data shows BTC recorded negative monthly returns in 5 of the last 7 Augusts, averaging an 11.4% decline. A breakdown below the $105,000 ascending triangle trendline could invalidate the bullish macro outlook.

Technical indicators signal potential reversal, however, as BTC reclaimed its bull flag pattern with $112,000 support holding firm. Crypto Rover notes consolidation above this level may trigger a breakout toward $118,000. The TD Sequential indicator flashed a buy signal at $112,000, suggesting short-term upside momentum. Analyst Captain Faibik emphasizes that a decisive close above $115,000 is critical to target $125,000 resistance.

Institutional accumulation continues aggressively, with Japan's Metaplanet purchasing 463 BTC for $53.7 million on August 4 at $115,895 per coin. This brings their total holdings to 17,595 BTC (worth over $2 billion), ranking among the top seven public Bitcoin treasuries globally.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic shifts may catalyze recovery. 10x Research highlights revised U.S. labor data indicating economic softness, potentially prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historically, similar conditions in Q3 2024 preceded a 50-basis-point Fed reduction and market rebound. Bitcoin currently trades below key technical barriers ($117,239 20-day SMA and $121,345 upper Bollinger Band), with RSI at 46.21 showing neutral-to-bearish momentum. The $112,000-$119,500 range remains pivotal, with a dovish Fed shift potentially driving breakouts.