Bitcoin (BTC) faces mounting pressure near the $115,000 level, marking a 3% weekly decline after peaking above $123,000 in mid-July. A critical breakdown below the $116,000 support on July 31 pushed BTC into a low-liquidity "air gap" between $110,000-$116,000, where opportunistic buyers accumulated approximately 120,000 BTC during a bounce to $114,000. However, Glassnode analysts warn this accumulation remains insufficient to establish robust support.
Short-term holders—those who acquired BTC within the past 155 days—have seen profitability plunge from 100% to 70%, with their collective cost basis now at $106,000. This narrowing profit margin threatens market confidence, especially if BTC fails to reclaim $116,000. Concurrently, Bitcoin whales booked over $44.5 million in profits within 48 hours, amplifying sell-side pressure.
On-chain metrics reveal broader profit-taking trends: Daily realized profits halved from $2 billion in December 2024 to $1 billion currently. The profit-taking rate among short-term holders fell to 45%, below the 50% historical neutral threshold, indicating temporary market balance. Republic Technologies CEO Daniel Liu notes a potential "healthy correction" toward $105,000-$107,000 if demand doesn't rebound swiftly.
Technical indicators present mixed signals. Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility, suggesting an impending breakout, while the RSI hints at neutral-to-bullish momentum. A MACD bullish crossover looms, though negative 30-day options skew reflects growing investor caution. Despite short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin's year-to-date returns remain nearly triple the S&P 500's performance.