Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, has declared Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle—historically tied to halving events—officially over. In an August 11 statement on X, Rochard argued that with 95% of Bitcoin already mined, halvings are now "immaterial to trading float" as supply shocks have diminished. He emphasized that new supply primarily comes from "buying out OGs" rather than miners, while demand is driven by spot retail, ETF adoption on wealth platforms, and corporate treasuries.
This perspective follows Bitcoin's unprecedented behavior during the April 2024 halving, where prices peaked at $73,000 weeks before the event—fueled by U.S. spot ETF approvals and institutional inflows. Jason Dussault of Intellistake.ai confirmed the structural shift, noting Bitcoin now responds to "global liquidity, ETF flows, and investor sentiment" alongside traditional assets like equities. ICB Labs' Mete Al added that Bitcoin's "adulthood" phase prioritizes trillion-dollar liquidity waves over supply cuts.
While Enso CEO Connor Howe acknowledges halvings still influence miner economics and scarcity narratives, he stresses traders can no longer rely on a rigid four-year playbook. Market data underscores the transition: cryptocurrency's total market cap hit a record $4.13 trillion in August 2025, surpassing the previous cycle's peak. However, Crypto Tips' Toby Cunningham warned such declarations often signal market tops, cautioning investors against overconfidence.
Analyst SightBringer contends the cycle was always a "byproduct of Bitcoin’s early architecture" when retail capital dominated. Today, institutional collateralization and sovereign holdings dictate cycles, making bear markets less severe and tops "stealthy." Spheron CEO Prashant Maurya advises adopting a multi-factor framework combining macro conditions, on-chain metrics, and capital flows—signaling a permanent shift from countdown-based strategies to liquidity-driven analysis.