Crypto markets opened the week with significant declines, pushing Bitcoin to $115,000 (down 3% daily) and Ethereum to $4,300 as total market capitalization retreated to $4 trillion. This dip sets the stage for high volatility driven by three critical US economic events this week.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes from July's meeting will reveal internal Fed debates after their 9-2 rate hold vote. With markets pricing in an 84.8% probability of September rate cuts to 4.00%-4.25%, hawkish signals could pressure risk assets while dovish tones may fuel rebounds. The minutes will clarify policymakers' stance amid 2.7% July inflation.
Thursday brings jobless claims and PMI data, with initial claims expected at 224,000. Sustained elevation could signal labor market cooling, potentially boosting rate-cut expectations. Concurrent S&P Manufacturing/Services PMI reports will provide fresh economic health indicators.
Friday's Jackson Hole Symposium features Fed Chair Powell's keynote (10 AM ET), historically causing major market swings. Analysts anticipate a cautious 'owl-like' stance emphasizing data dependence, though dovish hints could lift crypto. Geopolitical risk adds another layer, as Monday's Trump-Zelensky meeting on Ukraine peace prospects may influence broader risk appetite.