Bitcoin price has declined below $108,000, trading at $107,820 on Monday, marking a 13% drop from its August 14 all-time high of $124,128. Despite the price pullback, market activity has intensified with spot trading volume rising 30% to $30.6 billion and futures volume surging 44.55% to $58.42 billion. Open interest also increased to $80.41 billion, suggesting new positions are being opened rather than closed, indicating higher conviction among traders.
On-chain metrics present a contrasting bullish narrative. The Delta Cap indicator, currently at $108,900, has historically served as a cycle floor and Bitcoin trading above this level suggests underlying strength. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Gap sits at +11.6, indicating stronger institutional demand from U.S. investors willing to pay premiums for Bitcoin, a pattern that has preceded upward moves in previous cycles.
Technical analysis reveals concerning breakdowns. Bitcoin has breached several key support levels including the Ichimoku cloud, the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, and crucial horizontal support zones around $111,965 and $109,364. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average shows a bearish crossover, and the weekly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, signaling a transition from bullish to bearish momentum. These technical breakdowns suggest potential for further decline toward the 200-day SMA at $101,366 or even the psychological $100,000 level.
Seasonal trends add to the bearish case, with September historically being a weak month for Bitcoin, averaging -3.49% returns since 2013. For bulls to regain control, overcoming the lower high of $113,510 set on August 28 is crucial.
