Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading near $4,411, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern with support at $4,211 and resistance at $4,386. Despite a 4.7% decline over the past week, ETH has gained over 68% in the last three months, leaving most near-term holders in profit. Two key on-chain metrics suggest a bullish resolution may be imminent.
Profit supply has dropped from 98.4% on August 26 to 92.7% on September 1, indicating potential seller exhaustion. Historically, such local bottoms have preceded rallies, like the 31% surge from $3,612 to $4,748 in early August after profit supply hit 91.8%.
Simultaneously, short-term holders (1-3 months) have been accumulating, with their share rising from 10.9% to 13% in two weeks despite ETH's significant gains. This accumulation, combined with an On-Balance Volume (OBV) divergence showing higher lows while price makes lower lows, signals underlying demand.
Analysts highlight $4,450–$4,500 as a critical resistance zone. A daily close above this level, aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4,486, could trigger a rally toward $4,957 and potentially $6,000. Institutional support remains strong, with ETH ETFs posting net inflows of $1.08 billion last week, led by BlackRock's ETHA ($968.2 million) and Fidelity's FETH ($108.4 million). Whale activity also shows rotation from BTC to ETH, with one investor swapping 4,000 BTC ($435 million) for 96,859 ETH ($433 million) in 12 hours, now holding 837,429 ETH worth ~$3.85 billion.