Bitcoin slipped below $110,500 on Saturday, down more than 2% in 24 hours, as investor confidence in a fourth-quarter rally waned. The caution stems from analyst PlanC's argument that relying on past halving cycles to predict price peaks is statistically flawed, comparing it to the coin toss fallacy.
PlanC warned traders that BTC's history doesn't guarantee a repeat, stating: "There's no statistical evidence for a Q4 peak. Market conditions have changed so much since previous cycles. Bitcoin ETF and corporate treasury holdings have changed the game, old cycle based forecasts are useless." He emphasized that the forecast hinges on psychological factors rather than fundamental metrics.
This perspective has unsettled bullish sentiment, with investors now questioning whether BTC can surpass last month's high of $124,128. Market surveys show nearly 70% of respondents expect a drop to $105,000 before a potential move higher.
While sentiment around Q4 has cooled, macroeconomic conditions are offering support. The latest U.S. jobs report revealed softer-than-expected data, with only 22,000 jobs added in August (much weaker than expected) and unemployment rising to 4.3% - the highest since October 2021. Markets reacted sharply: Treasury yields dropped, the dollar index fell 0.70%, and expectations for a September rate cut skyrocketed.
Technical analysis shows BTC forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $113,400 and higher lows since late August. The 50-SMA at $110,021 is supporting price action, while the 200-SMA at $112,606 serves as the pivot. RSI at 50 shows consolidation with mild bullish divergence. If BTC breaks above $113,400 on strong volume, upside targets at $115,400 and $117,150 come into play. Failure at resistance could drag prices back toward $108,770 support.
