Bitcoin is currently trading near $112,100, showing a modest 1% weekly gain after bouncing from $107,200 levels in early September. This relief rally follows August's 6% decline, though BTC remains down approximately 9% month-on-month. The market faces conflicting on-chain signals that create uncertainty about Bitcoin's near-term direction.
Bearish indicators emerge as long-term holders have reduced their positions significantly. Since mid-July, these wallets have sold approximately 290,000 BTC, dropping from 14.72 million to 14.43 million BTC - the lowest level in three months. Simultaneously, whale activity has increased, with the exchange whale ratio climbing from 0.44 on September 5 to 0.53, indicating large holders are moving coins to exchanges. Historically, similar whale ratio levels preceded price drops from $116,900 to $108,300 in late August.
Technical analysis reveals a hidden bearish divergence between August 28 and September 8, where Bitcoin's price made lower highs while the RSI indicator showed higher highs. This pattern typically signals continued downward momentum. Key support rests at $110,500, with breaks potentially opening the door to $107,200 or even $103,500 levels.
Countering these bearish signals, accumulator addresses have reached a record 266,000 BTC holdings as of September 5. These wallets, characterized by consistent buying without any selling activity, demonstrate strong long-term conviction. This accumulation trend suggests underlying structural demand despite short-term volatility.
The market awaits clarity from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with potential interest rate cuts possibly reshaping risk appetite. Bitcoin currently faces immediate resistance at the 100-day moving average around $114,000, with a break above potentially targeting the $117,000-$118,000 range where the 200-day moving average resides.