Gold has surged to a new all-time high of $3,659 per ounce in September 2025, marking its fourth consecutive week of gains and displaying extreme bullish momentum with its RSI above 80. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains trapped in a consolidation range around $112,600, facing immediate resistance at $114,800 where the 50-day EMA is limiting upward momentum. The volume profile indicates less aggressive buying pressure for BTC, and its RSI remains near neutral territory, making it susceptible to retracements.
This divergence highlights a significant narrative shift: investors are increasingly favoring traditional safe-haven assets like gold over riskier cryptocurrencies amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold's rally is supported by central bank purchases, inflation hedging, and geopolitical risks, with foreign central banks now holding more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Analyst Versan Aljarrah forecasts gold could climb to $4,000 or higher, while EndGame Macro notes gold has broken above its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, reflecting declining confidence in the monetary system.
Despite short-term capital rotation toward precious metals, several analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Joe Consorti points out that gold typically leads BTC by about 100 days due to gold's greater liquidity and wider distribution. Tephra Digital's analysis shows BTC tends to follow global M2 expansion with a 102-day lag and gold's rally with a 200-day lag, leading to predictions of BTC reaching $167,000-$185,000 later in 2025. Consorti emphasized, "BTC is an echo boom. 1st maintenance rate cut next week. Q4 setup looks great."
However, concerns persist that gold and silver (which recently broke above $41, its highest since 2012) may continue attracting capital away from Bitcoin in the short term. Investor LBroad observed, "It seems like capital is starting to rotate out of assets that had skyrocketed, like Bitcoin, and into traditional safe havens like precious metals."