According to a new report from Fidelity Digital Assets, approximately 28% of the total Bitcoin (BTC) supply will be effectively non-circulating by the end of 2025. Fidelity projects that the combined holdings of dormant addresses (inactive for over seven years) and publicly traded companies holding more than 1,000 BTC will exceed 6 million by the end of this year.
The research highlights a dramatic shift from Bitcoin's early days when circulation was encouraged, to today's environment where scarcity dominates. Fidelity identifies two key groups contributing to this illiquid supply: addresses with no movement for seven or more years, and publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. This combined group is estimated to hold over 6 million BTC by end-2025, representing 28% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply.
Looking further ahead, Fidelity projects these holdings could grow to 8.3 million BTC by 2032, representing 42% of the circulating supply. As of June 30, 2025, these two groups held over $628 billion in Bitcoin at an average price of $107,700 per BTC—more than double the value held just one year prior.
While there have been early signs of profit-taking, with 80,000 "ancient Bitcoin" (coins that haven't moved for over a decade) being sold in July 2025, Fidelity researcher Zack Wainwright does not expect this to reverse the illiquid supply trend. He concludes that a shrinking liquid supply will continue, and investors should understand this shift to shape their long-term portfolio strategies.