The U.S. Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board by a narrow 48-47 vote on September 16, a development that has sparked significant speculation in financial markets. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has based a massive Bitcoin prediction on this event, suggesting Miran's presence could catalyze a radical new Fed policy that might ultimately propel BTC's value to seven figures.
Miran, who previously wrote "Bitcoin fixes this" in a 2023 post suggesting cryptocurrency could address traditional financial system problems, is viewed by some as potentially making the central bank more open to digital assets. More importantly, Miran recently discussed the Fed's statutory responsibility to pursue "moderate long-term interest rates," a concept being framed by some media outlets as a potential "third mandate" alongside price stability and maximum employment.
Hayes has latched onto this political change, arguing that the recognition of this third mandate is essentially a type of yield curve control (YCC), where a central bank sets specific yields for government bonds. "With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's 'third mandate,' which is essentially yield curve control," Hayes claimed, adding "YCC -> $BTC = $1m."
This prediction comes amid strong Bitcoin performance, with BTC gaining 5.1% over the last seven days to push past $117,000 and sitting just 5.6% below its all-time high of $124,457 set on August 14. Supporting factors include Tether minting $1 billion USDT overnight, money market funds swelling to $7.5 trillion, and institutional accumulation patterns showing a newly created wallet acquiring 5,817 Bitcoin (over $680 million) from exchanges.
The macroeconomic backdrop appears favorable with a 96% probability of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut and growing institutional appetite for Bitcoin, though whether Miran's presence at the Fed will accelerate Bitcoin's trajectory remains uncertain.