Exchange inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum have plummeted to their lowest levels in over a year, signaling reduced selling pressure as investors hold positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut decision. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's 7-day moving average of exchange inflows dropped to 25,000 BTC—the lowest in a year—down significantly from 51,000 BTC in July. The average deposit size per transaction also halved from 1.14 BTC in mid-July to 0.57 BTC in September, indicating diminished sell pressure from larger holders.
Ethereum mirrored this trend, with exchange inflows falling to a two-month low of 783,000 ETH (7-day average), down from 1.8 million ETH on August 15. The average ETH deposit size declined from 40–45 ETH to 30 ETH per transaction. Meanwhile, stablecoin deposits, particularly USDT, surged to a year-to-date high of $379 million on August 31, interpreted by CryptoQuant's Head of Research Julio Moreno as growing "dry powder" for potential market deployment post-Fed announcement.
Binance recorded consistent outflows over nine days, contributing to Bitcoin's recovery from $108,000 to $116,000. Technical analysis suggests a breakout above $117,200 could target $128,000–$132,000. The Bitcoin Bull Score improved from "bearish" to "neutral," climbing from 20 to 50 over four days. Historically, a green September for Bitcoin precedes bullish October and November performances, with average combined gains of 35%.
In contrast, altcoin exchange inflows surged to 55,000 transactions (7-day average), up from 20,000–30,000 in May–June, indicating higher selling pressure for non-BTC/ETH assets. Markets priced a 91% probability of a Fed rate cut, with analysts like Arthur Hayes anticipating yield curve control measures.