Ethereum Holds at $4.5K as Key $4K Support Threatens Major Correction

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $4,500, maintaining a critical range between support at $4,000 and resistance near its all-time high of $4,900. Over the past week, ETH has gained 4%, though it faces short-term weakness after slipping under Monday's low. Analyst Crypto Bully emphasized that ETH has been "lacklustre since the ATH sweep," treating the current phase as a range-bound market. A break below $4,000 could trigger a deeper correction, while holding above $4,500 might fuel a rally toward $4,865.

On-chain metrics reveal bullish accumulation signals. CryptoQuant data shows ETH Exchange Reserves dropped by 128,000 ETH in the past week, falling to 17.073 million, indicating reduced sell pressure as whales and institutions move assets off exchanges. The Exchange Supply Ratio has hit a record low of 0.14, down from over 0.30 in 2020, suggesting long-term holding sentiment. Additionally, Active Addresses surged by 108,000 in 48 hours, reflecting strong network activity despite price dips.

Derivatives data presents a mixed outlook. Binance ETH open interest (OI) has seen average drops of 15% over three months, aligning with spot price corrections of around 11%. However, the Binance ETHUSDT Long/Short Ratio currently stands at 2.17, with 68.5% of traders holding long positions, indicating strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders.

Long-term cycle analysis from CryptoELlTES suggests ETH could target $15,000–$20,000 if historical channel patterns hold, though this depends on maintaining key support levels. For now, ETH remains in a consolidation phase, with its next major move hinging on the $4,000–$4,500 range.