Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin's potential price trajectory in the next bear market. Cowen predicts that Bitcoin could experience a sharp correction of up to 70% from its next all-time high, based on historical market cycles following Bitcoin halvings.
Historical precedents show Bitcoin declined by 94%, 87%, and approximately 77% in previous cycles, and Cowen argues "this time it doesn't have to be different." While he acknowledges such a large decline isn't certain, the pattern suggests investors should prepare for this possibility. If Bitcoin reaches a cycle top of $250,000, a 70% correction would bring the price down to around $75,000; if the peak hits $500,000, the bottom could be near $150,000.
Cowen expects Bitcoin to first recover and reach its peak, potentially showing an uptrend in the fourth quarter. He plans to profit from this rise and may wait until mid-2026 to re-enter the market after the anticipated correction.
Regarding Ethereum, Cowen presents a more optimistic outlook, stating that while ETH may "struggle" against Bitcoin in the short term for a few more weeks, it is "likely to outperform from now until the end of the cycle." He believes Ethereum will recover towards the end of the market cycle and ultimately outperform Bitcoin.
Supporting the altcoin narrative, data shows Bitcoin dominance has dropped from 65% to 57.16% - its lowest point since February - while the altcoin season index has climbed above 80%, indicating capital rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies.