Bitcoin's price action has entered a critical phase following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18, 2025, with analysts presenting sharply divergent scenarios based on whether BTC can hold key support levels. According to Glassnode's on-chain analysis, Bitcoin must maintain above $115,200 to preserve bullish momentum. A break below this level could trigger a decline to $105,500.
The market shows mixed signals: while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $163 million in net inflows on September 18 (with all twelve ETFs showing no outflows), derivatives markets indicate growing volatility risks. Open interest in Bitcoin options has reached a record 5 million BTC, with a massive expiration set for September 26. This creates potential for large-scale liquidations in either direction.
Currently trading around $116,990-$117,000 (up 1% daily), Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $119,000. Analyst Michael van de Poppe identifies this as the key breakout level for a push toward $123,700, while Ali Martinez notes that holding $115,440 support could open a path to $137,300.
Institutional demand remains strong with continued ETF inflows and major exchange withdrawals reducing available supply. However, leveraged positions are increasing, with open interest in perpetuals slightly decreasing from 3.95M to 3.78M BTC. The market's direction may be decided by how Bitcoin handles the current support zone amid record options expiration.