Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility, breaking below its consolidation band and hitting a 12-day low of $111,000 before recovering to $113,213, down 2.24% weekly. Short-term holders (STHs) panicked, realizing losses on approximately 30,000 BTC in a single day, with sell-side risk spiking to a two-week high of 0.00055.
Retail cohorts—Shrimps, Fish, and Crabs—all showed net negative balance changes, with Fish at -6.6k BTC, Crabs at -4.4k BTC, and Shrimps at -475 BTC, indicating widespread bearish sentiment. However, seller exhaustion constant declined, suggesting heavy liquidation over three days and reduced sell flows, which often precedes stabilization.
Key support lies at $112,000, with failure potentially pushing BTC to $111,645, while a rebound could target $115,896. Institutional ETF outflows reached $751 million in September, adding pressure, but historical capitulations in 2022-2023 aligned with local bottoms, offering hope if demand strengthens.