Ethereum (ETH) is facing a pivotal moment as conflicting technical analyses emerge. Recently, ETH broke through a key resistance level at approximately $4,100 after three failed attempts, flipping it into support and setting the stage for a potential rally. Analyst Merlijn the Trader highlighted that this breakout, confirmed by a bullish retest, could propel ETH toward $8,400 if momentum sustains, citing higher lows and growing demand signals.
However, the short-term outlook is clouded by bearish signals. ETH erased 7% this week amid risk-off sentiment, and a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a possible 15% correction to around $3,560. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that compression is building, with ETH already down nearly 20% from recent peaks, and identified the $3,550–$3,750 zone and the 20-week exponential moving average near $3,685 as critical support levels. He views this as an area for accumulation before a rebound.
Further technical analysis from Shayan indicates ETH failed to hold above $4,400, breaking below an ascending channel and hovering near $4,200. The RSI on daily charts sits at 40, showing weakened bullish strength, while the 4-hour chart RSI near 30 indicates oversold conditions that might spark a relief bounce. Key supports are at $4,000 and $3,800, the latter aligning with the 100-day moving average and a rising trendline from April. If bulls defend $3,800, ETH could form a higher low and target $4,200–$4,400; failure risks a deeper bearish phase.
On-chain data reveals persistent exchange outflows, reducing sell-side supply and supporting long-term bullishness, but short-term sentiment is dominated by profit-taking and technical weakness. The mixed signals underscore Ethereum's volatility, with a correction seen as inevitable for sustainable highs.