Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, has issued highly bullish forecasts for Bitcoin, projecting a surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025 and an ambitious $3.4 million by 2028. Hayes shared these insights during a media interview at the Blockchain Conference 'KBW2025' on September 23 in Seoul, emphasizing that approximately 100 days remain in the year for Bitcoin to more than double from its current price.
His short-term optimism hinges on expected liquidity injections from the United States, including a currency expansion policy by the Treasury and a series of Fed rate cuts. Hayes noted that while some Fed officials have expressed reservations about further cuts, he believes President Donald Trump's efforts to appoint Fed members favorable to his policies will succeed, leading to increased money printing. "Trump is trying to remove forces that oppose him from the Fed and fill it with people who agree with his policies," Hayes stated, anticipating this will extend the market cycle.
For the long-term projection, Hayes outlined a scenario where a second Trump administration implements Yield Curve Control (YCC), similar to policies during World War II when the Fed capped Treasury yields to fund military spending. He draws parallels to the COVID-19 era, where the Fed purchased 40% of government bonds and bank credit expanded by $2.5 trillion. Projecting this forward, Hayes estimates that a Trump-led YCC could generate $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028. Using a historical correlation of 0.19 between credit growth and Bitcoin's price increase, he arrives at the $3.4 million figure.
Hayes clarified that these numbers are directional bets rather than precise predictions, stressing that Bitcoin thrives in environments of uncontrolled monetary expansion. He remained neutral on Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory, which suggests a peak around October 2025, but emphasized that liquidity is his key focus. "As global currency supply is expected to increase, there is a high possibility that the market cycle will be extended," he said. Notably, Hayes recently sold his holdings in ENA and HYPE, underscoring his singular focus on Bitcoin as the primary hedge against fiat depreciation.