The 38th week of the year is historically the third-worst performing week for Bitcoin, averaging a return of -2.25%, according to Coinglass data. Only week 28 (-2.78%) and week 14 (-3.91%) have been weaker. This week, Bitcoin is already down nearly 2%, trading around $113,000.
September’s monthly options expiry points to a max pain level at $110,000, as reported by Deribit, which could imply further downside. Max pain refers to the strike price where the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, maximizing losses for buyers.
Market enthusiasm has faded, with perpetual funding rates for Bitcoin dropping to 4%, one of their lowest levels in a month. A low positive funding rate suggests reduced demand for leveraged long exposure, signaling cooled speculative froth. Implied volatility is also near historic lows at 37, reflecting muted expectations for future price swings.
Despite the weekly dip, Bitcoin remains 4% higher in September and up 6% for the quarter. With roughly 14 weeks left in the year, most historically produce positive returns, indicating potential for recovery.
External factors weighing on sentiment include gold's rally, up over 42% year-to-date, and gains in AI stocks like IREN, which may have diverted short-term attention from Bitcoin.