Ethereum (ETH) fell below $4,000 in early Asian trading on September 25, 2025, hitting a nearly seven-week low of $3,965, its weakest level since early August. The decline triggered significant liquidations, with over $134 million in ETH long positions liquidated in just four hours, contributing to a total of $140 million. By midday, ETH partially recovered to $4,032, but still reflected a 2.93% daily decline and a 12.4% drop over the past week. Notably, one trader saw their entire 9,152 ETH position valued at $36.4 million liquidated, amplifying losses.
Whale activity revealed a stark divide: while Grayscale transferred over $53.8 million in ETH to Coinbase, and other whales offloaded tens of millions, accumulation efforts were robust. For instance, 10 wallets withdrew 210,452 ETH worth $862.85 million from platforms like Kraken and Galaxy Digital OTC. Analysts highlighted that this push-and-pull behavior, with Binance exchange flows showing mixed deposits and withdrawals, indicates whales are positioning for a major market shift. "The market appears to have been preparing for a major move but has yet to trigger it," one analyst noted, suggesting that low utilization rates could signal accumulation rather than selling pressure.
Concurrently, Bitcoin (BTC) faced heightened volatility, with traders betting aggressively on upside moves. Derivatives data from Derive.xyz showed a 34% probability that BTC will exceed $120,000 by October 31, and a 26% chance it surpasses $135,000 by December. BTC's implied volatility climbed to about 30%, while ETH's surged to nearly 70% from 57% earlier in the week, amid record liquidations. Derive founder Nick Forster emphasized, "On Derive.xyz, traders are positioning for a major upside... with a large cluster of calls around $145,000/$155,000/$170,000 for October expiry." For ETH, traders assigned a 22% probability of crossing $5,000 by end-October, underscoring optimism despite short-term turbulence.
Analysts remain cautious on ETH's near-term outlook, with some predicting a drop to $3,750 or $3,800 if $4,000 support fails, but others drawing parallels to June's false breakdown that preceded a 100% rally. Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse suggested capital may shift back to BTC, potentially boosting its dominance above 60%, which could pressure altcoins like ETH.