Bitcoin is trading around $111,000, down 1.8% daily and 5.4% weekly, as investors await the release of U.S. PCE inflation data on September 26, 2025, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
According to prediction market Myriad, 61% of users expect BTC to drop to $105,000 before reaching new highs, with selling pressure concentrated between $115,000 and $119,000. Fed rate cut odds for next month stand at 83.4%, but higher-than-expected inflation could signal hawkish policy, pressuring crypto markets.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of $226 million this week, reflecting institutional caution, though a brief $241 million inflow on Wednesday underscored market volatility. Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin has lost the key 0.95 quantile support band, historically a precursor to declines toward $105,000 or lower.
Analysts are divided: Jake Kennis of Nansen warns that a PCE reading above the expected 2.7-2.9% range may trigger risk-off sentiment, while John Glover of Ledn notes the data could be a 'non-event' unless it surprises. Dom Harz of BOB highlights Bitcoin's stability above $110,000 as a sign of institutional trust.