Ethereum (ETH) has started October on a strong note, gaining almost 9% within the first three days and reaching close to $4,500 by Friday. The cryptocurrency is on the verge of breaking out from a re-accumulation phase, with its bullish trajectory hinging on holding the $4,700 support level.
According to analyst Joao Wedson from Alphractal, a push past $5,100 could lead to a healthy retest back to $4,700, setting the stage for a larger move. A clean break above $5,200 might trigger one of the fastest rallies in Ethereum's history, potentially catapulting the price to $7,000 in just hours or days, with Alphractal targeting $7,000 to $7,600 for the next leg up. Analyst Ted Pillows echoed this, noting that $4,500 is acting as resistance, and a successful reclaim could spark a swift rally to $4,700-$4,750.
Institutional interest has surged, with spot ETH ETFs recording a $307.1 million inflow in a single day, led by BlackRock's $177.1 million purchase. Fidelity's FETH captured $60.71 million, Bitwise ETHW $46.47 million, and Grayscale over $12 million. This week, total Ethereum ETF inflows reached approximately $1 billion, reversing previous outflows and signaling renewed confidence from major asset managers.
Ethereum is also experiencing a supply squeeze, as withdrawals from exchanges outpace inflows, pushing the Exchange Flux Balance into negative territory for the first time. This reduction in available supply could create scarcity, bolstering buying pressure. Additionally, the broader crypto market rally, with Bitcoin surpassing $120,000, and seasonal "Uptober" optimism—where historical returns for ETH in October average 5%—further support the bullish outlook.
Analysts have flagged key levels to watch: Ali Martinez highlighted $4,505 as a critical resistance; a close above it could trigger further surges, while failure might lead to consolidation. Donald Dean targets $5,766, emphasizing the importance of holding $3,876 support and closing above $4,955 to flip resistance into support.