Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, just below the critical $117,000 resistance level that analysts say defines the short-term trend, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. The firm warns that without new momentum, Bitcoin could retreat toward the lower end of its current range, with its latest data showing rising profit-taking among long-term holders—a pattern often seen before extended cooling phases.
This latest correction marks the third instance since late August where Bitcoin's spot price has fallen below the 0.95-quantile price model at $117,100, a level where more than 5% of the supply, held mostly by large buyers, is at a loss. Glassnode analysts caution that failure to hold the support range of $108,000 to $117,100 could trigger a medium- to long-term correction, with a sustained drop below $108,000 signaling structural weakness.
Despite the warnings, some analysts offer a more balanced view. Shubh Varma, CEO of Hyblock Capital, expects a volatile but contained trading range, stating that "sideways consolidation is the most probable path after such a deep reset." He highlights that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract heavy inflows, with U.S.-listed funds recording nearly $6 billion in inflows during a nine-day streak earlier this month, suggesting investor appetite remains robust.
Macro conditions could also play a role, with markets betting on another Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of October—odds are above 95% according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower borrowing costs typically drive capital toward higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Matt Mena of 21Shares sees this setup as "increasingly constructive" and believes Bitcoin could attempt another climb, potentially eyeing $150,000 if institutional inflows accelerate.
Long-term optimism persists, with figures like Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Joe Burnett of Unchained forecasting Bitcoin reaching $250,000 within the next 14 months, driven by easing monetary policy and growing integration with traditional finance. For now, traders are closely watching for signs of renewed momentum or further consolidation amid fragile sentiment.
HYPE