The release of September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, has become a critical focal point for cryptocurrency investors, as it occurs during an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that has halted most other economic data releases. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the CPI will proceed despite the shutdown, making it a rare exception and amplifying its influence on risk assets.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet just five days later, from October 28 to 29, to decide on interest rates. With derivatives markets pricing in a 98.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a smaller possibility of a 50 basis point cut, the CPI reading could directly shape expectations for further monetary easing. Headline CPI climbed 0.4% in August and reached 2.9% year over year, while core inflation held at 3.1%, and traders are closely watching for any surprises that might alter the Fed's stance.
Market sensitivity is high due to the compressed timing and lack of corroborating data, such as jobs and retail sales figures, which are delayed. Analysts note that even a slightly above-consensus CPI print could be tolerated if policymakers maintain a dovish outlook, but a hotter reading might trigger a temporary dip in crypto prices. Conversely, a soft CPI could strengthen the case for rate cuts, easing financial conditions and supporting inflows into digital assets. Global crypto market capitalization remains above $3.5 trillion, and the session is seen as a test of sentiment and faith in continued monetary support, potentially setting the tone for November trading flows and volatility across derivatives and spot markets.
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