Bitcoin Price Struggles as Long-Term and Short-Term Holders Offload Billions in BTC

Bitcoin's price recovery faces significant headwinds through the end of 2025, driven by persistent selling from both long-term and short-term holders, according to on-chain data and market analysts. Long-term Bitcoin investors, often referred to as "OG whales," have offloaded over 240,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest wave of profit-taking since January 2025. On-chain researcher James Check emphasized that this sell-side pressure is a primary source of market resistance, stating, "The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated, but it has been the source of resistance. Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression, just good old-fashioned sellers."

Supporting this, the average age of spent coins has risen from 26 days at the start of 2023 to around 100 days in October 2025, indicating that older, dormant coins are being reactivated and sold. Bitcoin's revived supply—the dollar value of coins moved after inactivity—has surged to roughly $2.9 billion per day, its second-highest level ever, with nearly 47% originating from coins last active six months to one year ago. This suggests holders from the 2024–2025 cycle are exiting.

Concurrently, short-term holders are bearing the brunt of recent price declines. Data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reveals that the cost basis for 1–3 month holders is approximately $114,700, which Bitcoin is currently trading below, putting these investors at a loss. In contrast, those holding for over three months have a cost basis near $106,800, keeping them in profit as BTC hovers around $111,000. Darkfost noted that capitulation is intensifying, with realized losses hitting $750 million per day—one of the highest levels in the current cycle—potentially signaling a local bottom. He outlined two scenarios: short-term holders may defend their cost basis to form a support level or capitulate briefly before a recovery.

Despite a recent rebound above $110,000, with Bitcoin reaching $111,292 after a 3.7% daily gain, the crypto has struggled to sustain momentum. Leverage ratios on exchanges like Binance declined in October but showed a slight recovery from 0.148 to 0.166 by late month, indicating renewed trader confidence. Analysts, including Reflexivity Research's William Clemente III, view this as a structural transition where supply shifts from OG holders to traditional finance, weighing on short-term price action.