Traders on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are displaying tempered optimism towards Bitcoin's performance in October 2025, with participants assigning only a 30% chance that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this month and a mere 1% probability of it surging to $150,000 before month-end. This cautious stance is reflected in other prediction sources, where the likelihood of Bitcoin closing October below $100,000 has risen to between 34% and 52%.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $110,959, showing a 3% gain over the past 24 hours but remaining down approximately 3.5% compared to a week ago. Market dynamics are further complicated by substantial Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges, exceeding 45,000 BTC (valued at $4.8 billion) since the start of October, marking the lowest exchange balance in six years and signaling long-term accumulation despite cooling short-term optimism.
The broader crypto market faces headwinds from macroeconomic pressures, including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate signals, as well as regulatory uncertainty highlighted by the Financial Stability Board's warning of significant gaps in global crypto rules. A historic liquidation wave wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions, adding to investor caution and dimming the traditional Uptober rally hopes.
Polymarket's crowd-sourced predictions, which aggregate real-time sentiment from thousands of users, serve as an early indicator of market expectations. While some traders retain hope for moderate gains, the overall sentiment suggests consolidation may precede any significant moves, with key resistance levels around $90,000 to $95,000 being closely watched.
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