The U.S. federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, has forced the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into contingency staffing, halting the processing of nearly 100 cryptocurrency ETF applications and creating widespread uncertainty in the market.
Key pending decisions include Grayscale's Cardano ETF and three separate spot XRP funds, which were expected to receive rulings this week but are now stuck in bureaucratic limbo. The shutdown, now in its fourth week, is on track to break records if Congress fails to pass a funding bill soon, with prediction markets on Polymarket showing only a 7% chance of reopening before Halloween.
Despite the silence, optimism persists for some assets. On Polymarket, users assign a 77% probability to Cardano ETF approval by 2025, reflecting confidence in its robust ecosystem and compliance reputation. Andrew Jacobson, a former legal head at 21Shares, noted, "When the lights come back on, we'll probably see a surge of ETF approvals in a short period," describing the autumn as "crunch time" for financial product launches.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly traded above $120,000 during the initial weeks of the shutdown, with 24-hour volumes reaching $60–70 billion, indicating market resilience but also heightened speculation in the absence of regulatory oversight. The shutdown has delayed key economic data releases and forced traders to rely more on on-chain metrics and social sentiment, though this substitution carries risks of misinterpreting market intent.
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