Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $114,518, struggling to break above the key $115,000 resistance zone amid recent price weakness. Despite this short-term challenge, historical data reveals that November has traditionally been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, with a median return of 11.2% and an average gain exceeding 40% across past cycles. For instance, in 2013, BTC surged 453.9%, while 2020 and 2017 saw gains of 42.9% and nearly 59%, respectively, highlighting a consistent bullish pattern.
However, Rachel Lin, Co-Founder and CEO of SynFutures, cautions that November 2025 could diverge due to global trade tensions, inflation, and recession fears. She predicts consolidation or a modest recovery rather than a full rally, with potential scenarios ranging from a retest of $90,000 if conditions worsen to a 10-20% rebound toward $120,000-$140,000 if support holds above $110,000. Lin emphasizes that a strong catalyst is needed for sustained upward momentum.
On a positive note, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $3.69 billion in October alone, boosting cumulative flows from $58.4 billion to $62.1 billion. This reflects ongoing institutional confidence in BTC as a 'digital gold' hedge, with ETFs now holding over 6% of Bitcoin's total supply. On-chain data further underscores critical levels, with support around $111,000 and resistance near $117,000, indicating a battleground for buyers and profit-takers.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's near-term target is its all-time high of $126,199, requiring a 10.2% rise, but it must first overcome resistance at $117,261 and $120,000. A failure to sustain momentum above $115,000 could trigger a dip toward $110,000, invalidating the bullish outlook. Overall, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with historical trends and ETF inflows providing a foundation for potential gains in November.
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