Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has raised fresh alarm over the rapid advancement of quantum computing, warning that Bitcoin's cryptographic security could be compromised as early as 2027 to 2029, an event analysts now refer to as "Q-Day." This forecast aligns with a growing consensus among experts that advances in quantum hardware may soon reach the capability required to break elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC), the foundation of Bitcoin's public-key security.
Multiple sources converge on a 2-to-9-year risk window: Jameson Lopp (2024) estimates a 50% probability of quantum decryption within four to nine years, while Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers (2025) predicts ECC could be breached in two to six years by an operational quantum machine. McKinsey & Co. (2024) projects Q-Day arriving within two to ten years, assuming RSA 2048 falls first, followed by ECC. A 2017 collaboration involving Meta, Microsoft, and IonQ found that only 2,330 logical qubits are needed to break Bitcoin's ECC, a threshold expected to be surpassed within four years. The U.S. Department of War (2025) concluded that cryptographically relevant quantum computers may emerge in as few as three years, with 2029 identified as the latest plausible upper bound for maintaining current security standards.
"Q-Day" refers to the moment when quantum computers gain the ability to crack cryptographic keys, potentially exposing private keys and wallet signatures in Bitcoin, threatening stored BTC and transaction integrity. Edwards noted that Bitcoin has "four years of very high risk", citing a 50% likelihood that quantum machines achieve decryption capability by 2029. However, researchers stress that Bitcoin's open-source nature offers a path to upgrade before quantum decryption becomes viable, with mitigation strategies including adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, gradual rollout of multi-signature and quantum-safe address formats, and coordinated hard-fork planning for a network-wide transition.
While the risk is not immediate, the acceleration of quantum research at companies like Google, IBM, and IonQ suggests the timeline could compress. The message from Capriole is clear: preparation must begin before the breakthrough arrives to avoid systemic security risks.
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