Market analyst Joao Wedson has highlighted that Bitcoin's peak in the current cycle is still ahead, citing Alphractal's "Max Intersect SMA Model" as evidence. This statistical model, which accurately marked Bitcoin's peaks in 2017 and 2021, analyzes intersections between long-term moving averages to identify exhaustion points. "The signal hasn't triggered yet," Wedson explained, indicating that the top of this cycle remains in the future.
He noted that since the model was last mentioned, Bitcoin surged from $60,000 to $62,000, and if it approaches the $68,000 zone, it could spark a parabolic move. Wedson emphasized that this pattern is a repeatable, data-based structure, not coincidence, providing quantitative validation over speculation. He projects Bitcoin's potential apex between $143,000 and $146,000, describing it as the "statistical ideal" within the current four-year cycle.
Wedson cautioned that the market is in a distribution stage, characterized by sideways movement that helps reset leverage and gather strength. He argued that traders often overemphasize macroeconomic indicators, which can misrepresent Bitcoin's internal rhythm. While the risk-reward profile is less attractive than in 2022, he believes long-term holder hesitation could lead to sharper volatility before a final run-up. If the model holds, Bitcoin could soon break into uncharted territory, setting a new all-time high.
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