Filecoin (FIL) has shown signs of a bullish reversal, stabilizing above the critical support level of $1.62 and trading at approximately $1.63, despite a minor 0.7% decline over the past week. This stabilization indicates strength among short-term buyers, with the price action confined within a downward channel that has persisted since early 2024.
The key resistance levels to watch are $1.78 and $2.30, with a breakout above $2.30 potentially opening a path toward the upper trendline near $4.60 to $4.70. Recently, FIL surged 10.5% to a local high of $1.70, accompanied by a 167% spike in trading volume to $276 million, signaling robust capital inflow.
Market data reveals aggressive accumulation, with a positive Buy-Sell Delta of $2.3 million and top holders increasing their FIL holdings by 32% to 9.5 million tokens, according to Nansen. This shift in sentiment is further supported by dominance in the Futures market, where buyers outpaced sellers with a Net Position Change of 87k contracts.
Technical indicators, such as the Stochastic RSI hitting 89 (overbought), suggest sustained buyer dominance, though this warns of potential volatility. For the bullish outlook to hold, FIL must close above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.65, with targets including the 50-day EMA at $1.88 and the 100-day EMA at $2.10.
However, profit-taking remains a threat, as evidenced by positive Spot Netflows into exchanges, which could exert selling pressure if demand wanes. The broader structure points to a potential recovery if resistance levels are breached, but failure to hold support could see FIL retest lower consolidation zones.
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