Institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped below the daily mining supply for the first time in seven months, according to data analyzed by Charles Edwards, head of Capriole Investments. This shift occurred on November 3, 2025, signaling a potential weakening in BTC's price support mechanisms.
The analysis tracks three key institutional activities: Bitcoin mined by miners, spot ETF and similar institutional buying, and BTC Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) corporate activity. Edwards shared a chart showing a staggered decline in demand from DATs and ETFs since mid-August, with combined institutional purchasing pressure now lagging the daily issuance of new BTC. The last time institutional demand trailed mining supply was in March 2025.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced $1.67 billion in net outflows since October 11, following a market crash. On October 31 alone, these ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $191 million, with none of the twelve funds recording inflows. This indicates a reduced institutional appetite for BTC exposure through traditional vehicles, after a period of aggressive buying earlier in the year that helped prop up prices.
Expressing concern, Edwards stated, "Won’t lie, this was the main metric keeping me bullish the last months while every other asset outperformed Bitcoin. Not good." He highlighted that 188 treasury companies are carrying heavy BTC bags with no business model, and their Market Value to Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratios have collapsed, wiping out billions in paper wealth. A lower mNAV suggests eroding confidence, which could increase selling pressure.
Bitcoin's price has cooled from a record high of over $126,000 on October 6 to around $107,000, with the market consolidating above $105,000 since July. Additionally, on-chain data reveals increased whale selling, including BitcoinOG depositing approximately 13,000 BTC ($1.48 billion) to exchanges since October 1 and Owen Gunden transferring 3,265 BTC ($364.5 million) to Kraken. If the trend persists, BTC's price recovery may remain limited until institutional acquisitions resume.
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