TRX Price at Crossroads: Bearish Pressure Meets Bullish Technical Signals

Tron (TRX) is facing a critical juncture as conflicting market signals emerge. On the bearish side, TRX traded at $0.2830 on Tuesday, extending a 5% decline from Monday, with price approaching a key support level at $0.2764. According to DeFiLlama, Total Value Locked (TVL) fell by 6.32% over 24 hours to around $4.8 billion, indicating ongoing withdrawals from the DeFi ecosystem. Open interest in TRX futures dropped by 4.48% to $291 million, reflecting reduced leveraged positions and waning trader confidence.

Technical analysis underscores the bearish momentum, with price trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.3029 and a death cross formation—where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 100-day EMA. RSI is at 26, signaling oversold conditions, while MACD has dropped below its signal line for the third time since early October. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at -0.09 and Parabolic SAR dots above candles confirm steady outflows and weak buying pressure. A break below $0.2764 could trigger further declines to $0.2632 and $0.2397, while resistance lies near $0.2967 and the 200-day EMA.

In contrast, bullish factors highlight Tron's robust ecosystem. The network boasts 2.6 million daily active users, handles 65% of global retail USDT transfers under $1,000, and processes over $600 billion in monthly stablecoin transfers. A 60% fee reduction implemented in August 2025 cut base transaction costs, boosting adoption. Recent expansions include cross-chain integration with NEAR protocol, PayPal USD via LayerZero, and Kraken's election as a Super Representative. The launch of SunPerp DEX achieved $65 million in daily volume and $3.7 billion in cumulative volume within a month, while SunWukong DEX reached $3.65 billion in volume and 35,600 active users.

Technical patterns on shorter time frames suggest a potential reversal, with a double-bottom formation indicating consolidation. RSI and MACD are improving, and if bullish momentum holds, price could test resistance at $0.30, $0.32, or even $0.37. Order book data shows balanced long and short positions, with potential for a short squeeze if Bitcoin's performance supports it. Ultimately, TRX's direction hinges on macro factors and sustained buying pressure.