Hedera (HBAR) has faced significant downward pressure, declining 14.7% over the past week and 24.56% in the last month, with a large portion of losses stemming from the October 10 market crash. Daily trading volume plummeted by nearly 50%, indicating weakened buying interest and potential for a failed price bounce. Despite this, Bitcoin's sustained position above $100,000 offers a glimmer of hope for altcoin recovery, though most remain in downtrends.
Key technical indicators present a mixed outlook. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.6 reflects bearish momentum, but the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has formed higher lows and highs over the past three weeks, signaling accumulating buyer strength. A bullish structure shift occurred in late October when HBAR breached the $0.195 level, breaking a persistent downtrend since mid-August.
Short-term analysis reveals critical resistance and support levels. The 1-hour chart shows supply pressure between $0.19 and $0.20, with price testing the $0.176 swing level. While the hourly RSI indicates short-term bullish momentum, weak buying pressure in recent hours raises the risk of rejection at resistance. A bearish crossover is forming between the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), highlighting long-term selling pressure.
On-chain data suggests whale accumulation may tip the scales. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has risen since November 3, even as prices dipped toward $0.16, indicating significant capital inflows from large investors. This divergence between price and money flow points to whales buying the dip, with a sustained CMF above zero potentially driving HBAR toward the $0.20 upper range. The key range to watch is $0.16 to $0.20; a breakout above $0.20 could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below $0.16 might expose the $0.14 support level.
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