Legendary investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning that the Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts could be fueling a dangerous market bubble. In posts shared on November 6, 2025, Dalio argued that the Fed's move to end quantitative tightening (QT) and transition to balance sheet maintenance at $6.5 trillion, effective December 1, 2025, represents a classic "Big Debt Cycle" dynamic.
Dalio emphasized that this policy change, which includes redirecting agency security income into Treasury bills, is occurring during an economic expansion rather than a contraction. Current conditions feature stocks at new highs, inflation above the Fed's 2% target at over 3%, unemployment at 4.3%, and thin equity risk premiums with the S&P 500 earnings yield at 4.4% barely exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield of 4%. He noted that previous quantitative easing was deployed in weak economic environments, but now it's "stimulus into a bubble," particularly with AI stocks in bubble territory.
The mechanics involve liquidity injections lowering real yields, making riskier assets more attractive and potentially leading to a "melt-up" in prices. Assets like gold and Bitcoin could see significant gains as hedges against inflation and currency debasement, with gold already surging above $4,000 per ounce and central bank purchases accelerating. However, Dalio warned that this exuberance will eventually require forceful restraint from policymakers, potentially causing a hard landing and market crash, similar to late 1999 or 2010-2011.
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