Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its latest TradFi Report, providing an in-depth analysis of how investors are navigating the U.S. labor market amid an ongoing government shutdown that has halted official statistics. The report emphasizes the growing reliance on private data sources to fill the void left by suspended federal reports.
Key findings from the report indicate that Bloomberg's reconstructed unemployment figures show initial jobless claims declined to around 218,000 for the week ending October 25, down from 231,000 the previous week, suggesting tentative stabilization. However, gaps in state-level reporting introduce uncertainty into these estimates. Continuing claims edged higher to 1.95 million, signaling slower workforce re-entry and highlighting disproportionate strain on federal employees, with claims under federal programs reaching their highest level since the previous shutdown.
Private-sector data from ADP reveals renewed hiring momentum, with average weekly job creation rebounding to approximately 14,250 positions from September's losses. Online job postings in sectors like logistics, healthcare, and professional services also showed slight increases in late October, supporting signs of labor market resilience. Wage trends and consumer sentiment further contribute to a cautiously optimistic outlook, though persistent benefit claims and regional disparities underscore underlying economic fragilities.
Bybit analysts note that market participants are increasingly turning to alternative indicators like ADP's weekly payroll data and Bloomberg's real-time dashboards to model macro trends, a shift that may persist even after official data resumes. The report concludes that while the labor market's durability provides a buffer against downside risks, prolonged policy gridlock could test investor sentiment and defensive positioning.
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