The ongoing debate about Bitcoin's historic 4-year cycle has intensified, with conflicting analyses from BitMEX and crypto enthusiasts. BitMEX's quantitative research argues that the cycle is not dead but structural, rooted in the halving effect and market mechanics. The halving event, which reduces mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, historically triggers accumulation, parabolic rallies, speculative peaks, and collapses, with peaks estimated 12–18 months post-halving. Recent indicators, such as Bitcoin's underperformance year-to-date and a $20 billion liquidation cascade, suggest cyclical fatigue rather than maturity.
In contrast, Science Author Shanaka Anslem Perera claims the cycle has pivoted due to institutional demand, particularly from Bitcoin ETFs. He notes that key metrics like the Pi Cycle and MVRV Z-Score indicate mid-cycle consolidation, not an end to the bull run. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $64 billion, with recent volatility showing outflows of $660 million over six days, followed by a $240 million inflow, correlating with Bitcoin's price recovery to $101,997.13. Perera emphasizes that settlement dynamics, not sentiment, now govern prices, challenging the traditional cycle narrative.
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